Posted at 6:23 PM , on March 8, 2016
How feasible is a sharp bounce in the year 2016?
Nobody is willing to believe that oil can bounce by 40% in the year 2016. But then, nobody expected gold to give a return of 18% in two months since mid-December 2015. A recent report by UBS points out that while oil will continue to be under pressure, there is a likelihood of crude oil rallying by as much as 40-50% during the current year alone. That means oil touching a price of nearly $50/bbl from the current Brent crude oil levels of $34/bbl. Continue reading
Posted at 9:47 PM , on August 21, 2015
by- Himanshu Gupta- Research Analyst , Metals and Energy Research
Bloodbath in crude oil prices over past few weeks has sent prices tread water and has traumatized the oil bulls that looked confident for a sustained recovery post the worst sell off in the energy counter after 2008. A notoriously disguised rally that nurtured in the month of March this year from the levels close to $44/barrel at NYMEX and Rs 2700/bbl at MCX helped the prices to gain around 40 % from the lows. It was just the time when the prices caught themselves in an ennui range and bluffed the traders again with the direction of the breakout. Continue reading
Posted at 2:49 PM , on August 19, 2015
An oil price crash typically throws up familiar comparisons with 1986, 1998 and 2008. In all these 3 periods, oil had corrected for a fairly long time but had managed to subsequently bounce to new highs. The 2009 oil price crash was caused by the global slowdown post the Lehman crisis. The 1998 oil price crash eventually led to the Russian default. The 1986 oil price crash was, perhaps, similar to the current situation as that too was caused by oversupply coming in from Latin America. The question is whether this time around oil will bounce back to its highs? Or, will it remain at depressed levels indicating a new normal for oil pricing? There are sufficient indications in the oil market to suggest that we could be seeing the beginning of a new normal in oil prices. Continue reading