Posted at 6:25 PM , on January 13, 2016
Will 2016 see a revival in the price of gold?
It is after a very long time that the price of gold has seen a consistent rise for 9 successive trading sessions. After touching a low of $1050/oz and threatening to fall below the $1000 mark, gold registered smart gains to cross and settle above the $1100 mark. Is this a sustainable rally in gold prices, or is it just another false rally like the many cases we saw post 2011? Continue reading
Posted at 7:05 PM , on August 10, 2015
A contrarian take; on why the worst may be over…
Frankly, it is hard to see a bullish report on gold in the global scenario. Let us look at gold prices in dollar terms. Between August 2011 and August 2015, the dollar price of gold has fallen from $1900 / troy oz to below $1100 / troy oz. As if this 45% fall was not enough, most market analysts are predicting that gold will go below the psychological level of $1000 / troy oz. While it is hard to comment on levels, there is a strong possibility that gold may begin the process of bottoming out. Let us bust a few myths about gold. Continue reading
Posted at 7:59 PM , on July 30, 2015
by- Sugandha Sachdeva | AVP & Incharge- Metals, Energy & Currency Research at Religare Securities Limited
With gold prices slipping to new five year lows, the sentiments have once again turned quite bearish. After respecting the psychological level of Rs.25000/10gms at domestic bourses for a long time, prices have eventually breached the same, reflecting the lack of demand for the precious metal and unwinding of safe haven bets. In international markets too, the prices have plunged sharply and are trading below $1100 per ounce, significantly down from the all-time highs of $1920 per ounce. The universal safe haven asset has also failed to attract investors during the recent turmoil emerging out of Greece debt talks and the jitters in Chinese equity markets. So does that infer that prices may head further lower since the investors look in no hurry to take advantage of the lower prices? Well, the fundamentals are indicating something that’s not divergent from this thought ! Continue reading
Posted at 11:31 AM , on July 28, 2015
The price of gold has been on a virtual downtrend since September 2011. Of course, we are referring to gold in dollar terms. From a high of $1900 / troy oz it has fallen closer to $1100 / troy oz in a span of 4 years. There are a variety of reasons attributed for the end of gold as an alternate currency. Firstly, the dollar has been on a constant tear and typically the US dollar has been negatively correlated to the price of gold. Secondly, with the entry of ETFs large global ETFs like SPDR have started holding over 1300 tonnes of gold to back their gold ETF units. One needs to remember that SPDR today is the 6th largest gold holder. This investment demand has created volatility in the price of gold. Continue reading
Posted at 5:31 PM , on June 2, 2015
Why India needs to take its gold stash more seriously!
The recently announced Gold Monetization Scheme announced by the government is a small step in the right direction. The call of the moment is a lot more aggression. Let us understand why India needs to take its gold stash much more seriously.
How big is the stash…?
There are no confirmed reports on the gold stash of Indian households. But conservative estimates put the number at around 22,000 tons of gold. Of course, most of this gold is largely heterogeneous in terms of form, quality, purity and value. But, that is off the point. The reality is that Indian households are sitting on a huge stash and they are normally unable and unwilling to effectively unlock its value. Continue reading