| Trigger for the Week | How will it Impact? |
|---|---|
| The coming week will continue to be dominated by COVID-19 | With more than 1.2 million infections and 65,000 deaths, the markets are awaiting an abatement |
| India COVID-19 numbers to pick up as ICMR suggests rapid testing | Any worsening of the situation could imply extension of lockdown, putting further pressure on growth |
| Moody’s downgrade of banks to be a major overhang on markets | Moody’s shifted outlook of banks to negative due to asset quality concerns. Financials are 41% of Nifty |
| US jobless claims will also keep Indian markets under pressure | Jobless claims doubled to 6.6 million as the downside risks of the lockdown are likely to hit world markets |
| FPI selling figures for March to keep the pressure on markets | FPIs sold Rs.1.24 trillion in equity and debt in March and that is indicative of continued risk-off strategy of FPIs |
| Bounce in oil prices and supply cuts could be the big story this week | Trump has hinted at supply cut of 10-15 million bpd and progress on this front could impact crude prices |
| Global IT spending to be watched in light of COVID-19 | Infosys has hinted at flat to negative growth for IT companies and that could impact IT valuations |
| Mid cap stocks could face pressure on no-promoter buying | SEBI dismissed plea for leniency in insider trading rules for this quarter, leading to a halt in promoter buying |
| Fitch GDP estimates to be an overhang on the equity markets | Fitch downgrades FY21 GDP growth for India to a 30-year low of 2%, which could impact capital goods stocks |
| Government expected to announce relief package for SMEs | While this may not have a direct market impact, it is the key to consumption and rural demand build-up |
| Auto numbers to be an overhang on the markets in the coming week | Most auto stocks reported 50% to 80% fall in sales on sustained lockdown and that will keep the pressure on |
| Markets will await government guidance on lifting the lockdown | The lockdown lifts on April 14 but any extension of the lockdown could be negative for the stock markets |
| Indian rupee could see sustained weakness in the coming week | With FII selling and limited RBI support, the rupee could put pressure on markets if it goes beyond 77/$ |
| VIX has cooled but still way above levels that suggest market recovery | VIX at 55 is sharply lower but it needs to come under 20 for the markets to show any signs of recovery |
