When the final count of the trust vote was announced by the speaker, there was little by way of surprise. In fact, it was a foregone conclusion right from the very beginning. By the time the formality of the voting started, even the TDP and the Congress who had been keen on the vote had lost interest. The ruling NDA combine with 325 votes clearly swept the vote. But there are some larger implications that cannot be ignored. Here are 4 of them.
There will be a challenge…
One thing is very clear that 2019 will not be a cakewalk for the BJP like it was in 2014. The opposition is likely to get together and give a much tougher fight. While there are some parties that are still on the fence, there seems to be a core group of political parties that are gradually gravitating towards the National Alliance. That is something the Modi government will be watching!
Losing too many allies…
The emphatic victory of the NDA in 2014 may have lulled them to complacency. But even they must be aware they are losing allies. They lost the TDP and the PDP, with whom they had a government in J&K. A long term ally like Shiv Sena has chosen to abstain from voting. Modi also realizes that the SAD, JDU and the AIADMK are voting with the NDA only out of compulsion and out of a sense of opportunism. That is the worry!
Nucleus yet to emerge…
In the past, whenever the ruling establishment was challenged, there has been a nucleus around which the attack has gravitated. In 1977 it was JP and Morarji Desai while in 1989 it was VP Singh. You need a broadly acceptable leader who can act as the nucleus for the entire opposition. That has to happen and that has to happen fast. Unless that happens, the entire exercise will remain purely rhetoric. For example, the 1977 attack on Indira Gandhi was fully based on the atrocities during the emergency. The 1989 attack was largely based on the Bofors corruption and kickbacks. The opposition needs to urgently find an acceptable leader and also the core issue to target. Till then, it will just remain an academic exercise.
Brace for an acerbic contest…
If the Parliament debate was anything to go by, the election rhetoric in the next one year is going to be an all-out acerbic war of words. Rahul Gandhi has shown that he too has the appetite for the acerbic matches and the war of words will only get more intense as we move ahead. In the melee, the coalition that best addresses the core demands of the people of India will have a clear advantage. The onus is now on the opposition to find a nucleus and on the ruling NDA to find more coalition partners ahead of 2019. We are sure to live in interesting times!
