Budget 2017: Expectations on Government revenues…

The core of the government’s fiscal policy in the Union Budget will depend on how it treats its fiscal deficit. For the coming year, the Union Budget may keep the fiscal deficit target in the range of 3-3.5%. One of the problems of the FRBM is that it tends to be cyclical rather than counter-cyclical. Ideally, Fiscal Deficit should come down in times of high growth and be allowed to go up in terms of low growth. However, the FRBM insists that the discipline of fiscal deficit control be maintained irrespective of the pump-priming that the economy will require. While we believe that the government in this budget will focus largely on pump-priming the economy to a higher growth trajectory, it will also take care to ensure that the fiscal deficit does not spiral out of control. Indian Rupee tends to be vulnerable to higher levels of Fiscal Deficit and CAD and the government will be keen not to repeat the experience of 2013. Broadly, we expect the following line of thinking in terms of government revenues in the Union Budget…

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Budget 2017: Expectations for key industry sectors…

A key set of expectations from the Union Budget pertain to various sectors. Some of the key sectors that have been hit by the demonetization drive include two wheelers, farm equipment, FMCG, NBFCs etc. These sectors took a hit due to the cash crunch as well as constriction in rural demand. They will be looking at macro measures to revive demand. Then there are sectors like telecom, power and banking that are highly regulator intensive. They will be looking at regulatory measures to boost their fortunes in the budget. Here are the key budget expectations for the various sectors… Continue reading

Budget 2017: Expectations for Debt and Commodity investors…

Debt in India may still be an institutional market, but there are surely some key expectations that debt investors have. On the commodities front, there are some expectations that have emerged in the aftermath of the regulator for commodities being merged under SEBI. The following are the key expectations from the Union Budget… Continue reading

Budget 2017: Expectations of Equity & Mutual Fund investors…

What are the key expectations of equity and mutual fund investors in India from the Union Budget? It could be a mixed bag for equity and mutual fund investors. The government has indirectly expressed its plans to tax equity more aggressively. At the same time, mutual funds as a long term wealth creation may be incentivized. Here are the key expectations… Continue reading

PSU stocks may emerge as great stories in 2017…

Any discussion about the key themes of 2017 boils down to the standard ones. There is banking, there are plays on digital money and then there are the beneficiaries from GST. A very important theme for 2017 could be PSU stocks. Here is why… Continue reading

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