Trump Triumphs

Four things the world must now prepare for…

It was not just a surprising win but also an emphatic one. Contrary to popular expectations, Trump has emerged as the 45th President to occupy the White House. The world needs to prepare for four key changes that may happen…

Tough time for immigrants…

 It is not too clear if Trump will actually build a wall along the Mexican border and deport all illegal immigrants. But it is certain that the freedom that the US offered for all nationalities to enter the US and make a living may not be the same again. He may impose tighter visa restrictions on foreign nationals. He may also raise the minimum wage payable to migrant labor, which will make a lot of Indian software players fret. He may also focus more on providing jobs to Americans and make it a necessary part of any foreign company wanting to do business in the US. All in all, moving into the US and doing business is going to get a lot tougher under Trump.

Making America great again…

 While nobody is exactly sure what that means, there are a few pointers. Firstly, Trump may look to cut taxes, both for corporates and for individuals. This is likely to spur another consumption boom in the US. Over the last few years, US consumption had been slowing and that could turn sharply. Secondly, Trump also proposes to invest heavily into improving the infrastructure in the US. Trump believes, and rightly so, that US infrastructure is much below world standards. That could be another big idea that may be visible in future.

Throwing their weight in trade…

Trump has a few strong ideas in the area of trade. Firstly, the US could be encouraged to become a major player and exporter of oil. That will mean a substantial expansion in supply. The NAFTA may be scrapped and even the Pacific Alliance may be in danger. Trump has never been a great votary of an alliance with Japan. But, the big impact may be on trade with China. The US runs an annual trade deficit of $375 billion with China. Trump wants to impose a 45% import on all Chinese products. Whether that results in a trade war remains to be seen.

Global equations may shift…

This could be the single biggest change under Trump. Under his presidency, the US could actually get closer to Russia. Trump, anyways, shares a good rapport with Putin. Trump may stop the US from playing policeman to the world. This will mean reduced focus on NATO and less interference in Ukraine. Lastly, Trump is most likely to reverse the favorable feeling that the US has had towards Islamic states like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. A more inward looking US is very likely under Trump. Only time will judge the actual impact! ©

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