The World in 2030 – The biggest economies will drastically change…

The world’s largest economies by GDP could drastically change by 2030. While the US will continue to be the largest economy even in 2030, it will be closely followed by China. Interestingly, India will be at 3rd place with GDP slightly more than that of Japan. Now for the key highlights of this USDA study:

New GDP leagues created…

Exactly 15 years from now, a new league of GDPs will be created. The US and China will be almost at par with a GDP in excess of $22 trillion. Japan and India will be in the same league with a GDP of around $6.5 trillion. Interestingly, Germany and Brazil will be in the same league with a GDP of over $4 trillion. Lower down, Canada will be in the same GDP league as Russia, whereas Italy and Mexico will both have a GDP of around $2.3 trillion. Indonesia will have a GDP higher than Australia, while Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria will have a GDP that is greater than the Netherlands and slightly below Spain. In a nutshell, the story of 2030 will be all about the emergence of the emerging markets in the GDP power league. In fact, 10 out of the 20 top nations by GDP will be from emerging markets.

The big growers in GDP…

Not surprisingly, India and China will be the two major economies which will continue to grow at a scorching pace. China will expand its GDP by 120% from $10 trillion to $22 trillion in 15 years. India will stand out with a whopping 300% GDP growth over the next 15 years from $1.7 trillion to $6.6 trillion. It is a different story that despite this frenetic growth, India’s GDP per capita will increase from $1600 to around $4000, with a sub-100 rank. Surely, not something to write home about!

Among the developed nations, only the US and UK will see a substantial growth in GDP by 2030. Germany, Japan, France, Australia and Spain will barely see any growth in the next 15 years. The big stories will be countries like Turkey, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, which will enter the Top-20 league.

But, many assumptions too…

Let us not forget that there are many assumptions for this list to fructify. What if China goes through a lost decade, exactly like Japan? What if India fails to get its act together on fiscal deficit and infrastructure? What if cheap oil and commodity prices play havoc with countries like Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Australia, Russia and Canada? What if the rise of militancy puts a question mark over the economic stories of Nigeria, Turkey and Saudi Arabia? What if the US Fed starts to hike rates and the US starts cannibalizing global growth? What if a currency war was to devastate economies? There are no easy answers. But they could sharply change the face of this list by 2030! ©

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